The truth is that Britain is on a roll after Brexit, writes ALEX BRUMMER

Every time one factors out to the pro-European financial sages and managers who dominate Britain's boardrooms that British output has not collapsed since Brexit, the loud riposte comes again 'it hasn't occurred but'. That is a unprecedented rewriting of historical past.

The rapid shock of a Brexit vote was, we had been instructed, prone to be very, very unhealthy – with a droop in funding, a recession, surging unemployment and the necessity for an emergency funds involving a minimum of one other 2p on earnings tax. It was all hooey.

Because the Financial institution of England's prime economist Andrew Haldane acknowledged yesterday, the specialists not solely did not predict the monetary crash – he referred to as this their Michael Fish second, in a reference to the favored Met Workplace weatherman getting his forecast so incorrect over the Nice Storm of 1987 – however they'd additionally been too gloomy over Brexit.

The Financial institution of England's chief economist Andy Haldane (proven proper) mentioned his career was 'in disaster' after bungling so many main calls lately. Proven left, weatherman Michael Fish

The fact is that Britain is on an incredible roll. The nation has emerged from the Brexit vote as essentially the most sturdy financial system within the industrialised world.

The FTSE 100 index of prime corporations has hit a collection of recent information because the flip of 2017, and key surveys of British enterprise launched over the previous few days present that the engine reveals no signal of hitting the buffers – regardless of relentlessly dismal predictions from gloomsters.

Those that warn Brexit hasn't occurred but are starting to look very silly certainly: for what precisely are they predicting will occur on the day that Article 50 is invoked or, in a worst case state of affairs, talks on leaving the EU break down?

The reality is that neither occasion will trigger the sky to fall in – customers usually are not abruptly going to cease spending, and the Germans won't instantly cease delivery upmarket vehicles and SUVs to British showrooms.

It's true, after all, that the financial cycle will proceed – growth and bust has not been written off as former chancellor-prime minister Gordon Brown as soon as pledged it will be. The record-breaking build-up of unsecured shopper debt value £1.9billion within the month of November is actually worrying. And even Britain couldn't escape a downward spiral in world commerce triggered, as an illustration, by a Trump-led, protectionist US locking the gates on imported Chinese language items.

But when and when any of this occurs allow us to not blame Brexit. Because the Financial institution's Andrew Haldane has noticed, it's as if the Brexit vote by no means occurred for the buyer.

A prime Financial institution of England official in contrast financial forecasters to weathermen – specifically Mr Fish who in 1987 famously instructed the nation there could be no hurricane (pictured)

What we have now seen up to now few days is a dramatic hat-trick of optimistic financial information tales. All three drivers of financial growth – manufacturing, building and providers – ended 2016 on an expectedly sturdy observe, which suggests the output of the entire nation begins 2017 with sturdy optimistic momentum.

The all-important providers sector, which constitutes some 70 per cent of what Britain does, was at its strongest for 17 months in December in line with a survey of the Buying Managers liable for ordering services for enterprise. Manufacturing and building hit new highs. Final 12 months through the referendum marketing campaign, the then director normal of the British Chambers of Commerce, John Longworth, was suspended for being too optimistic concerning the post-Brexit financial system.

But this week the BCC's survey of seven,250 smaller and medium-sized enterprises revealed home gross sales and orders in providers carried out strongly within the last quarter of the 12 months. In the meantime export providers elevated in response to the cheaper pound and prospects for funding in plant and equipment improved – in itself, a real signal of confidence.

An index compiled by Goldman Sachs reveals that Britain achieved 2.6 per cent annualised development in December and has proven 'continued momentum all through the interval since June's EU referendum'.

Many forecasters are projecting a slowdown for Britain to 1.5 per cent development or much less in 2017, arguing that greater costs, brought on by the autumn within the pound, will chip away at inflation-adjusted incomes and gradual the dashing juggernaut. However the reality is, we now not have any motive to put any religion in what the specialists say.

There may be another state of affairs, and one that's mirrored in hovering share costs which have carried the FTSE 100 above 7200.

It's that Brexit and the autumn within the pound will unleash an growth of exports as was the case after the UK was ejected from the trade price mechanism, the precursor of the one foreign money, in 1993. That competitors on the excessive avenue and from on-line gross sales will trigger shopper worth will increase to be a lot smaller than projected, so actual incomes won't be squeezed exhausting. And that the UK might be a beneficiary of Donald Trump's drive for quicker American output via tax cuts and extra infrastructure spending.

It's time for the pro-Europeans to recognise the Brexit vote has not been disruptive in any respect. Once we do depart the EU, the world won't cease spinning on its axis – and the shock, if there may be one, must be properly absorbed by a assured and sturdy post-Brexit Britain.